UBS Investment Research China Mobile (HK) Ltd

【名称】：UBS Investment Research China Mobile (HK) Ltd
【作者】: UBS
【格式】: PDF
【页数】：12
【语言】：英文
【摘要或目录】：


! Meeting with CEO reaffirms our positive view  Trading data (local/US$)
We met with China Mobile CEO Mr. Wang Jianzhou in Beijing on Tuesday. Mr. 52-wk. range HK$46.75-27.55/US$30.35-17.93
Wang indicated that the company is experiencing better-than-expected growth in  Market cap.  HK$833bn/US$107bn
terms of subcribers, traffic, VAS and data businesses. Subscriber growth in rural
Shares o/s  19,670m (ORD)/3,934m (ADR)
areas is developing into a growth driver.
ADR ratio  1 ADR  :5 ORD
Free float 25%
! Relatively stable ARPU and EBITDA margin expected
Avg. daily volume ('000) 25,537/189
Mr. Wang said the ARPU drop in Q106 was seasonal, and believes any annual
Avg. daily value (HK$m) 1,088.3/5.2
ARPU decline will be only minor. Recent price cuts, although quite attention-

getting in the press, have mainly occurred in three regions where price elasticity Balance sheet data 12/06E
could offset the price reductions.
Shareholders' equity Rmb305bn
P/BV (UBS) 2.8x
! 2006 capex not to be revised up; dividend payout to rise gradually
Net cash (debt)  Rmb118bn
China Mobile has realized a 20% decline in equipment prices this year, thanks to

its centralized purchase program. The CEO appears confident that the Rmb83.3bn
Forecast returns
capex budget in 2006 will not be revised up. He also indicated a gradual approach
Forecast price appreciation +22.8%
to the dividend payout ratio, pending greater clarity on 3G capex and potential
Forecast dividend yield 3.9%
acquisitions.
Forecast stock return +26.7%
Market return assumption 7.3%
!  Valuation: Top pick of Chinese telcos with PT HK$52
Forecast excess return +19.4%
We believe China Mobile's interim results around mid-August could exceed

market expectations and drive up the share price. China Mobile is currently
EPS (UBS, Rmb)
trading at 13.2x and 10.8x PE in 2006E and 2007E, respectively, versus the  
      12/06E    12/05
regional averages of 12.4x and 10.5x. Maintain Buy 2 rating with 12-month DCF-
   UBS     Cons.  Actual
based PT of HK$52.

[ 本帖最后由 hehe 于 2008-2-17 16:40 编辑 ]